Use a pipeline-weighted approach. List every potential project with estimated value, probability of winning, and expected start month. Multiply value by probability — a $100K project at 40% chance becomes $40K weighted. Add your recurring revenue as baseline. Your forecast becomes: baseline + weighted pipeline = expected revenue, plus or minus 20%. Update weekly. Most project-based businesses get within 15% accuracy after 2-3 quarters of practice.
Answered 24 Apr 2026
Track your historical conversion rates by lead source and project type. After a year of data, you will know that referrals close at 60% and website enquiries at 25%. This lets you forecast from the top of the funnel — if you get 10 referral leads and 20 website leads per month, your expected wins are 6 referral and 5 website projects. Multiply by average project values for a bottom-up forecast. Combine with the weighted pipeline for near-term accuracy.
Answered 24 Apr 2026